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8 July 2009 New report suggests 'worst of the recession is over'

The worst of the recession is over, but recovery is not guaranteed, according to the latest report from the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC).

The BCC's Economic Survey for Quarter 2 of 2009 has revealed progress in the manufacturing and service sectors, with most key indicators improving over the last quarter. However, almost all of the critical measures remain weak.

Confidence was shown to have increased noticeably, with turnover confidence entering positive territory for the first time since Q3 2008.

Meanwhile, employment expectations grew in both sectors, but the BCC is still predicting that unemployment will hit 3.2 million by the middle of 2010.

The BCC is warning that despite the positive signs of economic recovery, there must be a continued focus on limiting the impact of the recession, or the economy could dip for a second time.

David Kern, BCC Chief Economist, said, 'The pace of decline in the UK economy is clearly moderating. The worst phase of the recession is over, but serious downward pressures persist across all sectors and regions'.

'Further corrective measures are still needed to support the economy. The marked improvement in confidence, albeit from exceptionally low levels, is welcome. However, these recent gains can only be sustained if the economy continues to stabilise and the recession ends.'